Since Christmas, there has been a 14 cent increase locally in crude oil prices. At this point it looks like the prices will continue to rise.
Given the crude price hikes, pump prices should top $3 a gallon in the next week or so.
The refineries are making the money. Most refineries also are in the crude business, so they make money on both sides.
DOE is right-on with its estimate. But we will see a lot of spikes outside of the forecasted range in April and May, maybe as high as $3 a gallon around Memorial Day, before trailing in June and July.
It is typical that in January we will see a rise (in prices), this year it looks particularly volatile.