David Shulmanwas an American lexicographer and cryptographer... (wikipedia)
My sense is the next correction will be serious.
Near-term, I think stocks probably will act reasonably well following the bond market. As long as bonds act well, stocks will act well.
Make no mistake. This is a soft landing. Typically, peak-to-trough declines amount to 50 percent.
Our logo is located in the same place as one of our minor competitors,
It is no accident that some of the best years economically over the past 45 years have been the presidential years of 1964, 1968, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1996 and 2000. Even 2004 wasn't all that bad in the light of history.
I think the movement in the bond market is probably short-term but it still probably has a little bit to go.
We're at the stage of the market where it seems to be detaching from historical fundamentals.
We were a bubble team; this was a signature win. Hopefully, we'll be able to get in.
What's astounding is that we've got high growth without inflation, ... there is a level of labor market tightness that will generate wage inflation.
Normally the last cycle's winners don't win in the next cycle. But people want to play them because they look cheap compared to the previous boom.
Expect 2006 to be far more volatile than 2005.
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The earnings warnings show that profits are under pressure, but it's not affecting the overall market because of the big move in interest rates. The key for stocks is still the bond market.
The era of the increase in consumer expenditures exceeding income growth is about to end.
The ingredients are in place for a nasty correction,
For example, 1970, 1974, 1982, 1990 and 2002 were recession years and 1966, 1986 and 1994 were associated with mid-cycle slowdowns.
We got a green light from the Fed last week and we got a green light from the bond market in Thursday. My sense is that over the next three to six weeks the market is going higher. But I would be thinking more in terms of selling rather than buying here.
We got a green light last month when the Fed decided not to raise rates, then we got another green light when the bond market rallied last Friday, ... The balloon is still blowing up. I'm staying defensive. I still say the bubble is going to break. I just don't know when.
How much of this is post facto rationalization?
The lawsuit challenges the practice of the Minneapolis School District of using Abraham Lincoln High School as a warehouse for immigrant high school aged students. Students sat in mainstream classrooms for years, not understanding what was being said, or what was being taught.
