Sentiment was extreme and totally against the yen, and that's why we saw it getting stronger. When everybody is positioned for one outcome, then you've got to ask yourself where the marginal buyers are going to come from.
Markets are sensing the Fed needs to do more even though US economic data have become more mixed.
Some of the risks associated with rate cuts have dissipated for sterling. We expect rates to remain on hold as the economic picture in the U.K. stabilizes.
The strong US employment report serves as reminder that upside risks to US short rates linger.
The story of 2005 was the dollar defying an overwhelmingly bearish consensus. The dollar has little to fear from a slowdown in U.S. consumption growth as this will eventually lead to an improved external trade position.
The story of the current account deficit allowed traders and analysts to justify any currency prices. Sentiment got overly bearish on the dollar.
It was almost a reflex reaction. If you have a good friend who can use your help, you just do it. It's all about coming to the aid of someone you care about deeply.
Dollars provided by the deficit are being soaked up by capital flows. It's important to consider both sides of the coin.
It's possible that the deficit actually becomes a positive factor for the dollar as people see it narrowing. That will allow the dollar to rally even as growth in the U.S. slows down and the Fed stops raising rates.
There was an observable extreme in market sentiment.
It's wrong to assume that the dollar will start to fall as the Fed stops raising rates. What we could see is a transition to a structural support for the dollar as the trade position improves.
Any significant weakness in the housing data would be dollar negative suggestive of a slowing economy, thus reducing the amount of monetary tightening required from the Fed.
The impact of the weaker ISM survey has knocked the dollar lower. The backdrop for the dollar is that it's just consolidating around here. It's a pause for now.
The growth fundamentals really weren't there for the euro. The U.S. has a strong economy, it has high yields and that's good for the dollar.
The market has got itself into a far-too-dovish spot given the tone of the Fed-speak. There is potential for rate expectations to rebuild and that should support the dollar.