Anthony Chan Fed Quotations

More rate cuts may not be forthcoming, but the Fed is also not likely to start raising rates as quickly as financial markets expect.

Next week's producer price index or consumer price index could tip the Fed in favor of a June hike if they're on the upside.

New Fed chairmen like to come out of the gate looking hawkish as they try to formulate their credibility. Then, they go back to looking more dovish.

Moving forward, the Fed will be focused on what they can do to get us out of recession.

Greenspan has to give reassurance that, if things deteriorate, the Fed is willing to act. But the underlying structure of the economy seems pretty good.

Given our forecast, we do not expect that this statistical release will have much impact on the policy debate when the Fed meets,

Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.

keeps the Fed tightening engine humming along and does raise the possibility that a more aggressive posture could be adopted somewhere down the line if the inflation indicators continue to surprise to the upside.

It could raise expectations of a pause (in Fed interest rate hikes) after the August meeting,

I think the Fed certainly looks at this as building up as pricing power on the part of companies, ... But (the price index) is still within the tolerable range for the Fed. That's not to say the Fed can relax and go on vacation, but I would say they're a relatively benign.

I think these numbers have the potential to drive the Fed to do an inter-meeting cut. The economy is slowing down, and I think we'll see more of this before it's over.

I think if we get another 0.3 rise in the core CPI, I think the Fed will want to draw line in the sand, ... The Fed statement shows there are a lot of anxious parties at that meeting willing to be (more) aggressive.

I think if you get a payroll above 300, it will probably spook the market. It puts the Fed back into play.

I think that if the Fed goes back to normal language about 'measured pace' (of rate hikes), it becomes a secondary story, ... It is only becoming a big story because of the uncertainty about what they were going to do. The equity markets will be looking for language here again. If it talks too harshly about inflationary pressures, it could be unfriendly for stocks.

I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine, ... The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.

I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.

Today's Fed rate cut and directive clearly reflects the fact that the Fed is coming to the end of its rainbow and therefore wants to ensure that it still can convince financial markets that it still has further flexibility to do more if it needs to.

The CPI report was very tame. It sort of reflects the comments by Alan Greenspan that even though monetary policy is way too expansive right now, inflation is sufficiently a non-event, a non-problem, so the Fed obviously can wait at this point,

Today's comments will go a long way to dispelling the idea that the Fed is in a rush to raise short-term interest rates.

What investors should realize is that the hostesses have been recruited to start removing the punch bowls from all Fed reception rooms and will soon be out full in force and ready to continue raising short-term rates well into 2003.

This rules out any Fed action until November -- or perhaps until next year.

With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.

We're starting to see the savings rate pick up from near historic levels, which is very encouraging. Though we don't expect Fed tightening to work overnight, we are starting to see some of the early results of the significant tightening we've seen to date.

Continuity is all but assured. The Fed has worked hard to win credibility and Greenspan is not going to throw it away in the final few months of his term.

Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)

The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.

When you have a long road to travel, you don't take too many breaks. You just keep on going. We're one or two bad numbers away from reassessment of Fed policy, but we're not there yet. Yes, this number is weak, and yes, it's disappointing, but there are some rays of hope in here.

Even though people thought this was a great opportunity to take the word 'measured' off the table, he didn't do that, ... It suggested that he was not at this point prepared to endorse the Fisher hypothesis. I think he's trying to make sure the Fed doesn't box itself in.

So why don't we get a 100-point or 200-point day? Because this is a pause, not an end to the Fed tightening.

This gives the Fed license to continue executing monetary policy. If they see any signs of slow growth in employment, industrial production, or retail sales, they certainly have the green light to make another cut. They have total flexibility to do whatever it takes to prevent a recession.

The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.

This is clearly a non-threatening report for investors and policy makers alike. Labor market conditions appear to be tepid enough to justify less rather than more Fed rate hikes while wage pressures did not spoil the party.

The Fed is fully aware that a slowly recovering economy needs to be nursed carefully back to health before the doctor sends the patient home.

The Fed is justified in being aggressive. We're in uncharted waters here.

The Fed is likely to continue to raise rates for much of the year 2005.

The Fed will raise rates, but they're aware that higher energy prices might do some of their job. And inflation is not so high that they need to panic.

In other words, before the end of 2002, the Fed should signal that their upward rate moves were just a warm-up for what we can expect in 2003.

In view of the stimulus already out there, I think the Fed will finish out the year by raising rates until the end.

These numbers are essentially telling us that retail sales were artificially boosted by zero-percent financing. These numbers are not going to do anything to discourage the Fed from thinking that the balance of risk in the economy is toward weakness.

These numbers give the Fed license to cut rates as much as necessary.

It lets the Fed feel more comfortable of raising only at a measured, and not an accelerated, pace,

The unemployment number is the one Main Street looks at. This buys the Fed a little more time and allows it to hold true to its word that, until geopolitical risk lifted, no stimulus should be added to economy.

There's always that danger that the Fed gets impatient here, ... But I think that most of the Fed governors today feel that gradualism is the best policy, because if they err on the side of doing too much, the price of being wrong is not so high.

There's always that danger that the Fed gets impatient here. But I think that most of the Fed governors today feel that gradualism is the best policy, because if they err on the side of doing too much, the price of being wrong is not so high.

It raises the probability that the Fed will not pause this year. The Fed may play it safe and remain in play in 2006.

What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.

I don't think this report guarantees a pause, but it doesn't stand in the way of a pause if the Fed feels it's something they should look at.

All the focus is on the core number. The Fed said yesterday that energy has not worked its way down to core consumer prices.