Next week's retail sales numbers and inflation numbers are going to be some key statistics to give us a little bit more input into where the Fed stands.
I think we really have to get to the next Fed meeting before anything significant happens. We have to see the emphasis on a slowing economy, and that's key to seeing that there won't be an open-ended succession of rate hikes.
The 10-year bond looks like it's headed higher, so I think the feeling is starting to pervade Wall Street that economy's fine and interest rates are heading higher. But the market has (also) been choppy and struggling with some key technical levels.
The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
Profit taking will be key words today (Thursday) and over the next couple of weeks. The Fed's rate cut yesterday bodes well for the longer term but near term it is an excuse to take profits. Cisco's story is another excuse to take profits in technology.
The Nasdaq broke its support levels last week because of IBM, Cisco, and Computer Associates. The S&P was weighed down by its tech exposure. Another key story next week is whether the Dow follows the rest of the market or can it continue to hold in the gains.
It's going to be another confidence building story the closer we get to the Fed meeting. I believe that the unemployment rate and the NAPM numbers will be the key numbers.
This market is just one decent story away from destroying the bears. I can just feel the short-sellers getting ready to push the buy button if the market gets through these key levels.