Merchant banking remains an exceptional business for the handful of Wall Street firms that have remained in it. Unfortunately, the disclosure of merchant banking portfolio positions is weak, and forecasting these gains is at best challenging.
We are probably at the point where the trading cycle is slowing, at least in North America, and it's tough to say investment banking will get better. But the retail and asset management businesses look really good. That's what's exciting to investors.
Investment banking is relatively easy to forecast, but the trading side is a tough one.
Investment banking really did knock the cover off the ball. We're moving from a pretty weak performance into a better-performing business.