Colen Garrow Likely Quotations

Welfare and dependency grants, personal income tax relief, and cuts in those costs which would make housing more affordable for middle and low income earners are likely to buoy consumption expenditure, and manufacturing.

Another issue likely to resurface is the matter of 'a more competitive exchange rate', deciphered as code for the rand to weaken. Moral suasion such as this may be good for export-biased manufacturers, but will hardly be considered good for observers of inflation, or long-term interest rate markets.

It would appear that with revenue collection exceeding budget this fiscal year, additional tax relief may be forthcoming when Finance Minister Trevor Manuel unveils the national Budget for 2006/2007 on 15th February. Welfare and dependency grants, personal income tax relief, and cuts in those costs which would make housing more affordable for middle and low income earners are likely to buoy consumption expenditure, and manufacturing.

It's likely to be a pro-growth budget in line with the government's target of reaching annual GDP growth of 6% by 2010.

What the bank is more likely to do (than cut rates) is intensify its moral suasion in support of a more competitive exchange rate.