Dan Vaught Cattle Quotations

Several times we've seen all-time live cattle open interest records set the week before the Goldman roll begins. I expect we'll set another live cattle futures open interest record next week.

Of course, we don't know how the bird flu situation will turn out. But, I see no strong reasons we won't see a three to four dollar (per hundredweight) seasonal cattle rally in the first quarter.

Although we'll probably see further weakness in cattle quotes, you have to wonder how much more downside there is after a 1,500-point price break.

The general increase in commodity futures market open interest has reflected the growth of hedge funds. And, recently, the short side of cattle futures has seen increased participation from the more traditional commodity funds, also.

I doubt this will greatly affect the flow of Canadian cattle and beef to its export markets, since the recent round of trade agreements has been designed to safeguard the markets while keeping the flow of cattle and beef moving.