Darrel Good Forecasts Quotations

Similar to corn, USDA soybean production forecasts had the largest impact on soybean futures prices in August, with recent price reactions appearing somewhat larger than in the past.

The persistence of moderate to severe drought conditions in parts of Illinois, Iowa, and much of the southern Plains increases concerns about yield potential. As usual, forecasts of summer weather conditions are not consistent at this time.

The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications -- a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.

The USDA may want to consider expanding the scope of the subjective yield surveys it uses in making the forecasts in order to incorporate a wider range of market and industry participants.

The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.