David Orr Explosion Quotations

The fact that the boom is ending should not be interpreted as indicating any serious trouble for builders or realtors -- unless, of course, some overextended on debt in expectations that sales would continue to accelerate, ... Prior to the recent explosion in sales, a level of 700,000 had been considered very strong. The current trend should be viewed as a return to normalcy rather than as the beginning of a housing recession.

While the monthly data is often erratic and the government statisticians warn that it takes four months to establish a change in trend, it is pretty clear from the top chart that the explosion in housing from 1997 through early 2000 is ending.