Dr. Nabarro Pandemic Quotations

Unfortunately, we cannot tell when the mutation might happen, or where it might happen, or how unpleasant the mutant virus will turn out to be. Nevertheless, we must remain on high alert for the possibility of sustained human-to-human transmission and of a pandemic starting at any time.

This is not the start of the pandemic. The start of the pandemic starts when there is human to human transfer, confirmed and sustained.