The only thing keeping prices artificially high is the potential for supply disruption, ... Fundamentally, prices should be at $20-to-$25.
Refining margins across the board obviously cooled off from their all-time high in the third quarter, and obviously that was very clear and expected.
Every producer around the world is producing the marginal barrel to take advantage of high prices. Right now, OPEC is not holding back. But OPEC wants to have its cake and eat it, too.
There is speculation that Texaco would be the next takeover target, but on fundamentals, Texaco is a very cheap stock, very high leverage to both oil prices and gas prices and both moving higher,
There's hope that an increase in demand will bring down what is perceived to be current high level of inventory, ... But that has not happened. We haven't seen significant declines in inventory levels around the world. That has influenced OPEC's decision.
High oil prices will come and haunt us.
Because the temperatures are rising as high as 60 degrees in (some parts of the region), the expectation is that weekly inventory data will show an increase to reflect less consumption.
The drop in prices correlates with unusually high temperatures in the Northeast.
We might see some reflection on crude prices as well as gasoline prices going forward, but not by much. I hope that people do not have high hopes for much lower crude prices or gasoline prices, because that is not in the cards.
The market is therefore focused on two things: No additional supplies coming from OPEC. The other factor is that we should be entering what is a high demand period for oil products with the start of the summer season,