Hugh Johnson Message Quotations

When the markets struggled for a technical bounce in the morning, that was investors sending a message that we're either heading toward an economic recession or toward a profits recession.

One message we get is that the stocks people buy when they're scared -- basic materials, beverages, foods -- did not do as well. Investors are more optimistic about the economy.

It is encouraging that the market has been able to hold together. The overall message is that the events in Southeast Asia will in time have an impact on the U.S. economy, but not a major impact in 1998. And that is really good news.

It seems so tied to the price of oil, that it's very hard to forecast what stocks will do next. On balance the message of the markets for the last nine trading sessions, including today, seems to have shifted to say that the price of oil is taking a chunk out of consumer spending.

The market is asking the question, given oil prices, given rates, given China's economy and other things, what does it look like for the economy and corporate profits in the fourth quarter and in 2005? The message we got last week was that it's probably not going to be as great as everybody once expected, but it will still be just fine.