Ian Shepherdson Ease Quotations

If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.

We think confidence will rebound next month, but in the meantime the odds surely now favor a Fed ease next week,

Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.

Skeptics will argue this is just a post-war bounce that won't last, but we disagree, ... The ISM was in the mid-50s before the war, thanks to very loose policy, and there's no reason why it can't return to those levels very soon. The Fed does not need to ease again.

The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.