Ian Shepherdson Evidence Quotations

Given the complete absence of meaningful inflationary pressure evident in the economy now, and -- as the Fed put it, 'tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy' -- we think there is very little chance that rates will rise again in the current cycle.

This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound,

Every turning point has to start somewhere, and the evidence on the industrial sector is becoming overwhelming.

This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.

It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging,

It is tempting to argue that two straight months of sales nearer to the 900,000 level than one million...is evidence of a real slowing in housing. But it probably tells us more about the awful weather across much of the country,