Ian Shepherdson Further Quotations

Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,

Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.

This reads like they are more scared than they have been willing to admit. And that they are ready to cut rates further - maybe soon.

The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,

The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,

Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us, ... Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.

Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us. Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.

This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,

The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.

As far as we can tell, confidence now seems to have run a bit ahead of the improvement in the stock market, and the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow to make further progress in recent weeks makes it doubtful that confidence will continue to rise at the May pace. The sharp rise in unemployment is likely to become a negative factor, too.

(The GDP and inflation data) won't prevent modest further easing,

The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7% year over year, down from May's 2.8% peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.