Ian Shepherdson Growth Quotations

Given the huge decline in consumer confidence, this (gain in spending) does not seem unreasonably weak, especially with consumers' real after-tax income growth slowing too.

Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer.

Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.

With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,

This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,

At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.

These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,

The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?

they strongly suggest that the trend in employment growth is slowing hard. A big drop in May payrolls may be in the cards.

This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.

This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations. We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.