Ian Shepherdson Indicator Quotations

Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.

Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.

The Chicago PMI has been very volatile over the past couple of years, probably as a result of the tribulations of the auto industry. As a result it has become a less reliable indicator of movements in the national ISM and the January dip does not necessarily mean the ISM will follow suit.