Ian Shepherdson Low Quotations

At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.

Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.

It now seems appropriate to start thinking about a fed funds rate as low as 4 percent by the summer.

Inventories remain very low and will add to third quarter and fourth quarter growth, too.

This is a low enough number to be interesting, but not so low that it clearly marks a favorable shift in the trend,

The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.