Bear in mind this survey is always more volatile than the ISM, and there may be an outsized July 4 long weekend effect, too. But these are bad numbers.
It is disappointing in the wake of the huge rise in the Empire State survey -- the indexes are usually at similar levels,
Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.
The only soft spots in the survey remain inventories and employment, but they will recover.
The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.
This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound,
The ISM survey clearly promises much bigger increases in production ahead, but for now the official data are lagging the survey a bit,
The Fed's Beige Book acknowledges some of the improvement evident in recent economic data, but the tone of the survey could not yet be described as a ringing endorsement of the recovery story,
The big question now is whether the ISM survey will follow the Philly down and dip below 50,
The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.
A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,