If this leads to the shut-off of Iranian oil, I think it would probably mean we've got bigger problems than the price of oil. But if we end up with a 1970s-style oil embargo, we could see prices go markedly higher into uncharted territory.
A couple of weeks ago we saw prices were moving toward $70 again. This is a very volatile marketplace but I think on the whole we are likely to see the average price this year higher than last year.
Prices went a lot higher than most of us expected a year ago. The factors that caused prices to surge aren't likely to go away next year. The volatility of the market may even increase.
American drivers have the capacity to handle higher fuel costs. With the economy in good shape, it is tough to believe people will stop driving because of an extra 50 or 75 cents per gallon.
After the PPI bounced last week due to higher energy costs, there is a big risk of the CPI following suit next week. There is significant upside risk there.
Strong continued gross domestic product growth and solid employment gains should fuel further home sales and may mitigate some of the slowing engendered by higher interest rates.
It's tough to blame (OPEC) for higher oil prices. I think they're doing what they can.