Earnings are coming in pretty much on target.
Earnings are coming in pretty much on target. We do have an option expiration so there is a lot of noise.
I'm not bearish. I don't think we're going into a recession and I'm not worried about deflation ... But earnings growth should only be about 7 to 8 percent this year and guidance for earnings keeps coming down.
If you think you can recklessly buy stocks you have to be assuming more than a V-shaped recovery in earnings -- you have to be assuming a hockey-stick shaped recovery.
I don't know how to handicap terrorism, other than to say that I think the risk premium should be higher than it is. But I think I can predict, directionally, earnings and the momentum of the economy.
The market is not priced for oil prices at record highs and rising interest rates and slowing earnings momentum and terrorist worries. People are pretty complacent out there. The assumption is that the economy is mending and that this will be a robust, self-sustaining recovery.