I would say their chances of making the NIT aren't good if they lose their first game.
Pitt still has some work to do. They are doing well in a pretty good league. They are in pretty good shape. They don't have a lot of good wins, but they also don't have any bad losses, either. They have good victories over Villanova and South Florida.
What it means is that you can't simply trust conference records to be a method of evaluating teams in the same conference. Everybody in that league will get a chance to play some good teams at some point, but not all 8-8's are the same.
Vanderbilt's got two Top-25 RPI wins, over Old Dominion and Western Kentucky. That's more than a lot of teams. But Arkansas is a bad loss. All the teams that have beaten Vanderbilt are pretty good except Arkansas.
Albany is a good candidate for that game as well. Also, the committee knows about everyone's injuries and those are a consideration.
The good thing for Pitt is that everyone will be taking on another loss in the last week of the season except for the conference champions.