Joshua Shapiro Trend Quotations

While we have seen an increase today versus a forecasted decline, housing starts are currently doing on a trend basis what many have forecasted: remaining on a high plateau, unable to move higher but not seeing demand fall off enough to take starts lower.

The trend is not going to be that great if imports are picking up in momentum.

While these orders have been volatile of late, the trend remains a solid one. Whether we will see a disruption in this trend due to the surge in energy prices remains to be seen and will ultimately be more important to markets than today's pre-Katrina outcome.

A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.