Our view is very optimistic. We believe that the tight yield curve is the result of the Fed's continued tightening. We are expecting economic growth of 4% much of this year. That is far from a recession.
What the Treasury has done has caused a significant, permanent shift in the way the curve is structured. We'd seen a lot of subtle changes beforehand but it was the announcement this week that really triggered the earthquake.
The yield curve remains steady ... indicating that the upside inflation risk appears to be canceled out by Fed vigilance for now.