Recent events overseas have probably elevated the global economy to the top of the RBA's risk list,
Payrolls is one of the main indicators of how strong the economy will be and a strong number means that there will be more rate hikes from the Fed. Yields are heading up across the curve.
People spend in their leisure time and in the modern economy people are more mobile. But it goes both ways. We get a substantial amount of our turnover from visitors.
There's a few areas in the economy that aren't doing as well, such as retailing. The central bank may keep interest rates on hold this year.
It's not a good time to hold 10-year Treasuries. The economy is holding together well. It would not surprise me if we get a hike in every meeting up to January.
The Medley report brought down expectations of how far the Fed will go, but we think there's enough strength in the economy for the Fed to raise rates right until May. Yields have to go higher. It's hard to justify buying Treasuries.