It appears increasingly likely that we will need colder-than-normal temperatures in order for heating oil and gas oil to perform this winter and lead crude up,
The speculative money is as much of a key driver for oil prices as Iran and Nigeria. There has been a massive influx of new money into commodities in general since the start of the year.
With each passing week of warm weather, the upside diminishes, the downside increases, and the chances of an oil market correction before the springtime also increase.
But markets are not really surprised. UK oil production has been declining for several years.
The market doesn't need more sour crude now, it needs more oil products. For anyone who has been paying close attention to oil markets in recent months, the whole thing is a big shrug of the shoulders.
The markets have been reacting to news on Iran, but the physical oil markets have been fairly relaxed so I'm not surprised to have seen them fall.