From 1965 to 1982, the yield curve in this country was inverted 47 percent of the time, yet bank earnings averaged a more rapid increase than non-bank earnings. Bank stocks also outperformed the S&P 500, on average, over that period.
Midwestern banks are accustomed to shifts in the local economies. They plan for it. However, they do not avoid it. They get hurt. Their loan losses rise. Their earnings tumble and their stock prices are impacted. It will happen again.
These brokerages are going to say about the quarter that just ended, 'It never happened,' because basically all of the core businesses you look at were flat or down somewhat, ... Depending on the company and the nature of its earnings base, earnings will be weak to very weak.
This event highlights, once again, the difficulty in determining earnings for derivative transactions.
Citigroup needed a lot more earnings to hit its estimates and Sandy just found them in a dominant company. This will give them a foothold in the United States, which is critical because that's where the money is made.