Severe operating challenges still confront GM, including mix, pricing and market-share pressures plus a tough macro outlook as consumers face rising interest rates and energy costs.
Growing fleet sales, increasing competitive pressure in large pickups and escalating risk of weaker consumer spending is likely to hurt pricing and revenue.
Caution is warranted given uncertainty about the consumer, rising interest rates, raw-material costs and pricing pressure.
We believe that GM's market share will continue to face persistent long term downward pressure, and that market pricing pressure will intensify over time, eroding GM fundamentals further.
The consumer spending environment since midsummer has softened. Our initial estimate is for 2006 sales of 16.8 million units, but we expect aggressive pricing will be needed to achieve that given a weakening consumer.