Market pricing has shifted to a September-December start to the easing cycle. The New Zealand dollar should consolidate further.
It is difficult to see the New Zealand dollar stage any kind of sustainable rally. Data is likely to portray softer growth than the Reserve Bank's projections.
U.S. dollar weakness will see the New Zealand dollar test higher levels. With the prospect of less support from interest rates, the U.S. dollar fell across the board.
A launching pad was established for the New Zealand dollar to rally. Offshore and local buyers were looking for something with a five in front.
Yield demand for the New Zealand dollar appears to remain unquenched.
The labor market data is expected to record some deterioration. This will keep the New Zealand dollar on the defensive.
Any sign of softening will see markets bring forward expectations of rate cuts. Tough talk on interest rates may provide further opportunities to sell New Zealand dollars.