Stephen Roach Economy Quotations

If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.

Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy -- now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of global output.

I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.

Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on.

We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,

It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices, ... That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006.

There's a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.

I continue to find Germany, by far Europe's biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move.

The major risk to the global economy is complacency. We cannot keep thinking that we can shrug off the deficit and the property bubble.