Labor markets are very strong and payroll employment should rise by 200,000 or more in February. The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to raise interest rates.
We still expect economic activity to slow over the next several quarters as consumer spending slows further and housing declines more because of higher interest rates and energy costs. The absence of inflation will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.
The slowdown in manufacturing activity will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve, where any sign of economic slowing will be cheered.
In an environment of slower growth, steady job creation, weaker productivity gains, and modestly rising inflation that we envision for 2005, the FOMC will continue to lift its target federal funds rate.
Despite a robust economy and tight labor markets, inflation is still low and steady. These data provide some relief for the Federal Open Market Committee.
Housing activity, which has contributed significantly to economic growth over the past 2-1/2 years, has now passed its peak and will be largely neutral to negative over the next several quarters, ... This slowdown will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.
The narrowing of the budget shortfall in October is largely due to timing factors. Nevertheless, there is no apparent deterioration caused by the federal relief efforts following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,