Steven Wood Gains Quotations

New and continuing claims are at levels that historically have been associated with payroll employment gains of around 225,000. Labor markets are gradually improving.

Retail spending was much stronger than anticipated. Although some of these gains were due to post-hurricane spending, it appears that consumers are not yet ready to throw in the towel.

Solid productivity gains are helping to restrain inflationary pressures. However, because the recent improvements are due to a dramatic reduction in work hours, they reflect the deep trouble the economy is in.

These data are broadly consistent with payroll employment gains in the 200,000 to 250,000 (monthly) range.

These data are consistent with slightly better pricing power for both importers and exporters, which reflects the improvement in international economic activity. However, the gains are sufficiently restrained as to not cause any concerns about broader based measures of inflation.

With employment gains non-existent, income growth has slowed. As households also become more judicious in taking on more debt, consumer spending will remain soft.

Despite the loosening of the labor markets, income gains remain sufficient to support spending at a moderate pace.

While good gains in productivity are economically favorable, it is not a good situation when this occurs because labor input is declining more rapidly than output.

Slowing income gains and increased uncertainty have savaged consumer spending. This has removed the only major support for the economy, insuring the recession will last, at least, into early next year.