New and continuing claims are at levels that historically have been associated with payroll employment gains of around 225,000. Labor markets are gradually improving.
There are a few tentative hints -- higher new orders, a drop in the inventory-to-sales ratio -- that the period of maximum weakness has likely passed. Although further declines in output are anticipated, the rate of decline should gradually diminish.
The general slowing in the growth of the leading indicators over the past year suggests the pace of economic growth should gradually slow over the next three to six to nine months.