Labor markets are deteriorating quickly in the wake of the terrorist attacks on September 11. The economy was quite weak before the attacks, which have accelerated the pace of layoffs. As layoffs spiral higher, hiring activity has stopped, giving a strong upward push to joblessness.
After adjusting for the storm effects, both initial and continuing claims appear to be near their pre-hurricane levels, indicating that labor markets remain strong despite the weak October payroll employment report.
Although inventory rebalancing is well underway, weak sales and elevated inventory-to-sales ratios will keep downward pressure on industrial production and manufacturing employment, ... This situation is unlikely to improve until spending accelerates.
The January gain in construction spending was surprisingly weak given the recent strength in housing starts and unseasonably warm weather.