The expectation is that the NAPM numbers should continue to improve and that the manufacturing recession is hopefully going away.
The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.
Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.