Nobody knows what to expect next. That's why the crude market is apprehensive.
Natural gas pricing is an immediate telltale sign of the winter situation: it is fairly mild, and this is likely to impact heating oil and crude demand as well.
Short term events like this which are unpredictable can drive a high price floor for crude prices. That is why we are seeing pricing in the high 50s even though the market is well supplied.
Crude inventory went up and the market is concerned about the continuing gasoline stock draw in the US market and the peak summer driving season that starts in late May.
Even if there's available crude for release, if there's no refining capacity that they can use, what good is that?
There's not a whole lot of movement in the market today. I think the crude market will watch for the two meetings this week.
This reduces fears about an Iranian crude supply cut and the market is just reacting to that.
The crude oil that is going to be supplied is the heavy, sour kind, and there is not much refining capacity for that. Louisiana refineries can process that, but they are shut down.
The release of crude out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not as critical as making sure that there is enough refined product supply and that there are refineries to process the crude.
The market is focused on the fact that the market is well supplied - both in products and in crude - while the Iranian situation stays in the background.
The market is well supplied with both crude and products.