The plunge in inventory accumulation does suggest that firms are not confident enough to add merchandise to their shelves. But they will not be able to do this indefinitely because everyone knows that sporting empty shelves in a rising growth environment is not prudent.
Although the current growth environment is not impressive, positive growth is still positive growth. On the darker side of things, however, we must admit that the economy still lacks the growth momentum needed to correct many of the labor market ailments.
Clearly when you speak of an economic slowdown, you usually talk of an unemployment rate that is much, much higher. This environment is just not right for a recession,
The two months of favorable data allow us to start connecting the dots. It gives us a picture of a rapidly improving labor market. I think we can categorically say we have seen a sea change in labor market environment at this time.