Mortgage rates will put a little bit of a brake on housing activity, ... but it may come precisely as other sectors start to turn around.
Several times in the last year we've seen mortgage rates creeping up and housing hasn't responded. Now the Federal Reserve has put some credibility behind the increase in rates. I think it set a general tone for the housing market that it'll be a lot more muted.
We see the slowdown crystal clear in the MBA purchase index, and it's starting to show up in monthly sales data. The one thing that was supporting the market, low mortgage rates, is being taken away.
Rates might be low, but people are starting to realize that rates will go up. Remember you've got to get a mortgage down the line, maybe six months out when the home is complete. People are preparing for it.
There's no question these higher mortgage rates will take some of the shine off the resiliency in the housing market,
Higher mortgage rates are having the expected impact on the housing market.
You've got to ask yourself, will we have another 100-to-150 basis-point decline in mortgage rates? ... I would say that's a stretch, so it's not going to be a reliable source of funds for consumers -- we'll need to see the economy turning around.