On the price deflator the numbers are a little bit stronger, so I am not as excited about that price number for GDP.
The outsized gain in housing starts was influenced by the same variable dominating most of the other headline stats like the retail sales and industrial production, namely weather. Everyone knows that housing starts is a volatile number that generally reports wide swings.
Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.
Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)
The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
Even though the headline number came in much stronger, it isn't the number investors are going to be focusing on.
This confidence is encouraging and takes some of the pressure off the terrible number we saw with retail sales.
That's a great number that basically calms a lot of the fears out there.
The much stronger-than-expected durable goods number is significant because it comes on the heels of a sizable gain the previous month,
The headline number is encouraging, but if you strip out the volatile components and look at core growth, it's telling you we're turning the corner, but we're not running around the corner.
The equity market has quite a considerable number of dark clouds hovering over it.
The unemployment number is the one Main Street looks at. This buys the Fed a little more time and allows it to hold true to its word that, until geopolitical risk lifted, no stimulus should be added to economy.
The key number was not the headline (overall CPI) number,
The number tells me a recession is coming, but it will be relatively mild in the wake of all the stimulus coming. But I would caution investors not to be so complacent as to think this could be bottom. It's going to be a lot uglier in the fourth quarter.
This week's CPI will seal (the Fed's decision), ... If we get a number at consensus or a little above, that'll tip it towards a June increase.
This week's CPI will seal (the Fed's decision). If we get a number at consensus or a little above, that'll tip it towards a June increase.