More rate cuts may not be forthcoming, but the Fed is also not likely to start raising rates as quickly as financial markets expect.
Mortgage rates will put a little bit of a brake on housing activity, ... but it may come precisely as other sectors start to turn around.
Now, with the economic recovery appearing to be somewhat in place and the central bank not lowering rates, we see people trying to get in at the gates before rates start to rise.
I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
What investors should realize is that the hostesses have been recruited to start removing the punch bowls from all Fed reception rooms and will soon be out full in force and ready to continue raising short-term rates well into 2003.
We'll start seeing solid and significant evidence of recovery in the manufacturing sector in the first quarter next year. It was the first to go into recession and will be the first to come out.
This report is certainly consistent with an economy that is trying to make a recovery, but a weak recovery. When you start to back out the volatile components, it's not all that weak. We're picking it up, but these numbers tell us the economy will come back slowly.
There doesn't seem to be any real urgency for firms to start hiring, precisely at a time we're seeing a reemergence of people becoming interested in looking for a job, ... Put the two together, and you have a formula for higher unemployment.
Exports increased by such a small amount, it's not enough to tell me the inventory problem is going to go away. We need world economic growth to start picking up.
The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
The labor market seems to be improving, but still at such slow pace, it's probably too early to start celebrating.
The two months of favorable data allow us to start connecting the dots. It gives us a picture of a rapidly improving labor market. I think we can categorically say we have seen a sea change in labor market environment at this time.