We're starting to see the savings rate pick up from near historic levels, which is very encouraging. Though we don't expect Fed tightening to work overnight, we are starting to see some of the early results of the significant tightening we've seen to date.
We see the slowdown crystal clear in the MBA purchase index, and it's starting to show up in monthly sales data. The one thing that was supporting the market, low mortgage rates, is being taken away.
Rates might be low, but people are starting to realize that rates will go up. Remember you've got to get a mortgage down the line, maybe six months out when the home is complete. People are preparing for it.
Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
The impact of higher energy prices is starting to bite corporate America. It's either going to raise costs or lower demand.
If housing is starting to weaken and manufacturing is not turning around, obviously it spells trouble for the economy.