My suspicion is the value of the dollar has to continue to weaken. Until we see further reduction in the value of the dollar, we won't be turning the ship around.
We can't ignore the trend -- jobless claims have been coming down. We're at least close to turning the corner on the labor market front.
This report is good news because it says the labor market is turning the corner, but it's still not strong enough to declare victory.
This is an economy coming back, but it's going to be a moderate recovery. But we should not despair, since a balanced recovery has the best chance of turning into a longer-lasting recovery.
You've got to ask yourself, will we have another 100-to-150 basis-point decline in mortgage rates? ... I would say that's a stretch, so it's not going to be a reliable source of funds for consumers -- we'll need to see the economy turning around.
The headline number is encouraging, but if you strip out the volatile components and look at core growth, it's telling you we're turning the corner, but we're not running around the corner.
If housing is starting to weaken and manufacturing is not turning around, obviously it spells trouble for the economy.