Based on a lifetime of observations and a few decades in the markets, I understand that societies, beliefs and fashions all move in long arcs of time. We call these arcs several things: cycles, periods, eras.
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Regardless of whether this upcoming release shows inflation today, given the supply shock to oil, we're expected to see inflation move higher in the next few months. It would certainly put a fork in the concept that the Fed has the opportunity to pause.
We've got a nice snapback today. We got shellacked over the last few days, so it's not surprising to see a little bounce back.
We need to see a confirmation in the next few weeks. We need another session of gains of 1 to 2 percent for all the major indexes before I'll be confident that this is a bottom.
Stock valuations have been stretched, everyone knows a rate hike is coming and great earnings are already baked into the stock market, so you're seeing this churning, and unfortunately, I would expect it to continue for the next few weeks.