Barry Ritholtz Fed Quotations

If the Fed stops raising rates, the market will blame them if inflation gets too hot, and if they keep cranking up interest rates, then the real estate market is at risk. It's a somewhat challenging environment.

If the Fed were to pause, what does it actually do for anybody ... in the afflicted Gulf region? At this point they're more concerned with basic food and shelter and not really comparison-shopping for mortgages.

Regardless of whether this upcoming release shows inflation today, given the supply shock to oil, we're expected to see inflation move higher in the next few months. It would certainly put a fork in the concept that the Fed has the opportunity to pause.

There is a lot of economic news to digest between now and the next meeting. If we see economic signs that are positive, then that would encourage the Fed to stay on the course of gradual rate hikes, but if things slow down then maybe they would skip a meeting or two.

The only dark cloud to this number is that now the Fed has no reason whatsoever to stop raising rates.

When you stop and think about it, if the Fed were to pause, what does it actually do for anybody ... in the afflicted Gulf region? At this point they're more concerned with basic food and shelter and not really comparison-shopping for mortgages.

The bond market is far less sanguine about the economy than the Fed is. They are essentially saying we don't see that much strength.

The Fed is now at the proverbial fork in the road,

The Fed doesn't have to jack up rates really quickly since other economic indicators are softening. Capital expenditures are modest and employment figures are anemic, so the biggest danger the Fed faces is smothering the recovery.

You can't fight the bond market. There's only so much the Fed can do. If investors are more concerned about economic growth slowing down in the future than inflation, they will flock to bonds.