David Brown Recovery Quotations

We think that relative softness in the euro zone recovery next year combined with inflation falling below two percent, will leave the ECB stuck on 2.5 percent rates for a considerable period.

Unemployment is on the upward march and that is hitting consumer optimism dramatically. In terms of the expected recovery in 2003 it will cause problems.

The weakest link in the recovery chain still remains the consumer, but as long as business confidence continues to improve, there is a better chance of faster job creation and a better fillip for consumer confidence down the road.

The bias to higher rates remains intact, but will stay a threat rather than a reality until stronger recovery surfaces.

These numbers will be a fillip for the European Central Bank, who will be looking at the stronger recovery tone in Germany as leverage to justify higher rates ahead.

The bottom line for German growth this year is that recovery momentum is flagging with GDP likely to rise by no more than 0.8 percent in 2005,

The first impressions are that the headline figure looks a lot softer than expected but if you add in the previous month's revisions it's still pointing towards a solid recovery and U.S. growth being on a solid footing.