Ian Shepherdson Recovery Quotations

There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways.  But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing,

Our guess now is that there will be some incremental decay of consumers' expectations, especially in the New York area, but it will not be sufficient to upset our basic recovery story,

This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,

Production was steady, ... a real industrial recovery is still some way off.

The Fed's Beige Book acknowledges some of the improvement evident in recent economic data, but the tone of the survey could not yet be described as a ringing endorsement of the recovery story,

A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,

There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.

There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.