Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (gross domestic product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.
We have one of the weakest growth rates ever during a tightening cycle, and we have to ask the question why the Fed still believes it is accommodative at 3.75 percent,
Whether it's lingering layoffs, receding real wage growth or cutbacks in health/pension benefits, corporate America is now in the process of shifting its lack of pricing power onto the backs of its workforce,
When rates back up, growth slows . . . quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (gross domestic product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.
When rates back up, growth slows ... quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.
When rates back up, growth slows quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.
Bizarre is not a strong enough word. We've never seen productivity growth this strong headed into the fifth year of a business expansion.
The SARS virus may not have much of a direct impact on U.S. growth -- though we would look for some spillover to the consumer confidence data.
For now we are assuming that the energy shock will dominate, suppressing growth in both 2005 and 2006. And the implications for earnings are negative.