Merrill has consistently bought back about $1 billion per quarter since early 2004, a pace that lately has been insufficient in offsetting balance sheet growth.
We believe core income should be slightly higher in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter, excluding one-time charges, reflecting improvement in capital-markets sensitive businesses (trading, investment banking, and wealth management).
Our estimate of $340 million in advisory revenue easily places the quarter as the highest for the firm post-bubble, and should move 2005 advisory revenues about 28% over the prior year.
The partial quarter effect of the two acquisitions should result in a 17% sequential revenue lift, while core expenses (excluding any one-time restructuring charges) should rise about 23%, as the company only begins to realize both expense and revenue synergies.
This is the first quarter in a long time where you will see year-over-year comparisons that are negative. And we'll probably see results for most of the quarters in 2005 being down on a year-over-year basis.