I think the core trumps the energy prices. We know about energy prices and it's an accident about when they collect price data during the month.
There is a risk that energy could break out into a bigger inflation problem. We have gotten through Katrina and oil prices have backed off a bit, but there is a risk that if we have a harsh winter, energy prices will rise again.
People see energy prices going up and they get a little worried about what they can afford to spend money on.
Energy is the big wild card. We just don't know where prices will be. It will be a question of how fast oil refineries and oil pipelines comes back.
The economy is living with it, and corporations are turning in strong profits despite high energy costs. People forget that energy isn't as big a part of the economy as it was 25 years ago.